The Republic of South Sudan

Population Projections, South Sudan from 2008 – 2015

Document Type

Managing for results is an important principle and is an objective for projecting into the future. This calls for population projection to provide what changes might occur given the assumptions inherent in the projection method and the data. There are a number of techniques for population projection. The Bureau decided to use cohort component method. The method uses the components of demographic change to project the population growth. It projects the population by age and sex. Usually the projection is done by age groups and therefore, in five-year groupings. We have decided to conduct projections in single years using the Census 2008 data as base.

As a result of signing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January, 2005, a number of South Sudanese returned from exile as well as from the then northern Sudan. This was a one-time massive return without associated out-migration. This information was got from International Organization for Migration (IOM). The largest part of this home-coming was between 2008 and 2011. IOM had their records of returnees by county in each state.

The components under consideration are births, deaths and migration. Births and mortality parameters were got from Census 2008 and SSHHS 2010 data. Projection for the years 2009 and 2010 were done using the parameters derived from Census 2008 data. Thereafter, the projections were done using parameters derived from SSHHS 2010 data. Migration data were got from IOM. These were used to move the population to midyear 2008. Thereafter, the population was closed to migration.